The Opta Analyst supercomputer has dramatically revised its predictions following Real Madrid’s stunning victory over Manchester City in the Champions League Round of 16.
Before the match, Real Madrid had just a 1.5% chance of winning the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, reflecting both a difficult draw and early-season perceptions.
After eliminating Manchester City, their probability has risen to 10.1%—a clear testament to Madrid’s legendary European pedigree and the massive impact of that result.
Arsenal remain the clear favorites with the highest probability at 32.09%, benefiting from their strong form and favorable position. They are followed by Bayern Munich as the second favorite with a 19.8% chance of lifting the trophy, while Paris Saint-Germain sit third with a 13.7% probability.
Like Real Madrid, Barcelona also have a 10.1% chance of winning the competition. They are followed by Atletico Madrid with 5.2%, Liverpool with 4%, and Sporting Lisbon with a 3.2% chance.
